I think you are basically right about the AFC North. If the Ravens or the Browns are last in the divison remains on the performance ot their #1 pick i think. If he is so good that he deserves to be taken #1 it will be Ravens with maybe 6 or 7 wins for the Browns i think. If not they should get the opportunity to mis on a top 5 pick next year again. Its almost funny how often they srewed it. You can almost bet, that if the Brown pick a player early he will be garbage. If they trade their pick he will be great ;-).
In the south it will be all about health. If Watson, Watt and Clowney are back and stay healthy they should win the divison i guess. If their WRs stays healthy it wouldnt hurt too. I think Jacksonville will take a step back. I just dont belive in Bortels enough and they lost some important parts of their Offense. If they should win the divison it will be because the rest of the teams just failed. Titans are hard to predict. I see them as a team with high floor but low ceiling. I think their range is about 9-7 to 7-9. Indy - we are back at health. I think they had a good draft and Luck is a **** of a QB IF he is healthy. So If he is healthy and comes back in form they should have a chance to win the divison. But i cant imagine that, he is away from football to long, so even if he is healthy (i doubt that too - i would say hes done) i think he cant be in form and therefore i agree they will be last in the divison.
West: I agree - if Case is for real Denver has a good shot. If Mahomes is what KC hopes they have that shot too and should compete with Denver for the Divison. As much as i like Rivers, i think the Chargers will only have a chance if Case and Mahomes dont produce, but that can easily happen. I totaly agree about the Raiders.
NFC East should belong to eagles. They will take back a step or two, but i dont see any challenges in the divison - therefore alone i think they will have a bye week in the playoffs. The Cowboys dont have anybody to catch the ball, The Giants rely on a QB that should have quit playing two years ago but still have a chance to be seound in the divison because of their skill position talent. Redskins - no coment. I dont think any team other then the Eagles have a chance to make the playoffs. I wouldnt be suprised if there is only one team with a winning record.
NFC North: Vikes are at least Conference final or bust. If Cousins is worth the money they have to accomplish that at least. Look at the rosters without the QB position - you wont find many beter teams than Minni. Packers should win the Divison if Cousins cant win against tough opponents, if he can they should at least win 10 and make the playoffs. I agree about Lions and Bears and think there will be two playoff teams from that divison.
NFC South is realy tough. I would rule out the Bucs as contenders for the divison title. but think any other team can make it. I think it will be close and therefore the secound team will just miss the playoffs.
NFC West: The opposite form South. I dont think Arizona or Seattle will play a big role here and wouldnt be suprised if both pick in the top 10 next year. I think the Rams should win the divison and the 49ers are close behind and make the playoffs. I think the 9ers will be a realy good team that season - i would predict 10 wins.
So go out there and place your bets for every team i predict to struggle. You should have good chances with that strategy ;-).