Legendruthless wrote:
setherick wrote:
When this move was made, JDB should have also removed the 3-4 Cover 1. It's as effective and less vulnerable than the FZ was.
It’s not as dominant and can be beaten. It’s only truly strong against the 113 formation, even then there’s a couple of passes and a few runs that work against it.
I ran a basic probability model against it since I've been using ChatGPT to help me write better python code, and it's as dominant.
Basically, I set a success metric of 5 yards for a short pass and 4 yards for an inside or outside run and then set an alpha and beta prior of .5. Against the 113, 203, 122, 212, and 311 there were 15 plays that had a probability of > .5 against the 113. And most of those had a low distribution, so they can't be trusted.