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Re: The Playcalling Matrix Randomizer

By eyeballll
9/23/2016 3:04 pm
jdavidbakr wrote:
setherick wrote:
Sent you a PM.



First, the play type was selected - it happened to select outside run on this spin (15% probability). Now, you only had two outside runs in your game plan, both were in 1RB/1TE/3WR personnel, which you had at 10% - however, since these two plays were the only plays available to choose from, obviously one of these plays were called. So, there was a 15% probability - or more than one in every ten plays - that one of those two outside runs would be called.


Hey Setherick, you know I love you, but I don't want to read this message, it contains high level strategies that I may or may use against you in 75... thanks...

Ok Mr Bakr, we have to talk. Somehow I've been invited to have a team in this wonderfully elitist Private 75, which is fantastic, but I find myself in Setherick's division, and the above quote makes me uneasy.

I've played in many different online sports management games, and there are 2 ways to play them: You can 'play the sport', in this case football, or you can 'bust the code', which is where you find a discrepancy in the coding, (they are always there) and try to find advantage that wouldn't work in real life. I prefer 'playing the sport', I'm kind of sports nerd.

Here's the problem: Setherick is only using 2 outside runs, the most successful runs in the game. I have 40 plays in my offensive game, fool that I am, because in actual football you can't have success running just a few plays. So I have 2 choices: I can 'play football', lose to Seth-i-poo twice a year and never make the playoffs, or I can 'bust the code', and drastically reduce my playbook. I'm leaning toward the latter, I like it when my opponent loses, it means I've won.

Now, I've heard that in the new engine defenses smarten up to an offense using the same play over and over. Can you confirm for me that, say, at some point in the second quarter, my MLB is going to say to my defense, "Hey, that clown has run that outside in 113 like 10 times. Let's cram it down his throat!"? Thanks in advance. ANd thanks Setherick for not reading this...

Re: The Playcalling Matrix Randomizer

By setherick - League Admin
9/23/2016 3:17 pm
My playbook in 75 may not feature any outside runs. With my OL, I'm probably going to pound the middle of the field.

Re: The Playcalling Matrix Randomizer

By eyeballll
9/23/2016 10:50 pm
You have a killer OLine, no doubt... but you might be missing my point...

Re: The Playcalling Matrix Randomizer

By setherick - League Admin
9/24/2016 4:44 am
eyeballll wrote:
You have a killer OLine, no doubt... but you might be missing my point...


Nope - I got you point, I was just being facetious.

Re: The Playcalling Matrix Randomizer

By lellow2011
9/24/2016 5:14 am
eyeballll wrote:
jdavidbakr wrote:
setherick wrote:
Sent you a PM.



First, the play type was selected - it happened to select outside run on this spin (15% probability). Now, you only had two outside runs in your game plan, both were in 1RB/1TE/3WR personnel, which you had at 10% - however, since these two plays were the only plays available to choose from, obviously one of these plays were called. So, there was a 15% probability - or more than one in every ten plays - that one of those two outside runs would be called.


Hey Setherick, you know I love you, but I don't want to read this message, it contains high level strategies that I may or may use against you in 75... thanks...

Ok Mr Bakr, we have to talk. Somehow I've been invited to have a team in this wonderfully elitist Private 75, which is fantastic, but I find myself in Setherick's division, and the above quote makes me uneasy.

I've played in many different online sports management games, and there are 2 ways to play them: You can 'play the sport', in this case football, or you can 'bust the code', which is where you find a discrepancy in the coding, (they are always there) and try to find advantage that wouldn't work in real life. I prefer 'playing the sport', I'm kind of sports nerd.

Here's the problem: Setherick is only using 2 outside runs, the most successful runs in the game. I have 40 plays in my offensive game, fool that I am, because in actual football you can't have success running just a few plays. So I have 2 choices: I can 'play football', lose to Seth-i-poo twice a year and never make the playoffs, or I can 'bust the code', and drastically reduce my playbook. I'm leaning toward the latter, I like it when my opponent loses, it means I've won.

Now, I've heard that in the new engine defenses smarten up to an offense using the same play over and over. Can you confirm for me that, say, at some point in the second quarter, my MLB is going to say to my defense, "Hey, that clown has run that outside in 113 like 10 times. Let's cram it down his throat!"? Thanks in advance. ANd thanks Setherick for not reading this...


JDB has claimed the defense is supposed to catch on to a play being run repeatedly, I have seen evidence to the contrary.

Re: The Playcalling Matrix Randomizer

By setherick - League Admin
9/24/2016 5:32 am
Alright - let's be clear here too - I'm moving away from the 113 HB Counter and Counter Weak because both plays are exploits when it's not game planned against and it's a giant waste when it is. You either get 10-80 yards per carry or you get negative 1-5 yards per carry. Like most plays in the play book there is no concept of this is what it looks like when an average team runs it.

There is one other outside running play that I have found to be equally effective - the 221 HB Counter Weak. I have found no other outside running play that gains yards. I would to love to know if someone, anyone, has found another outside running play that works more than 1% of the time.

How far was I trying to move away from the Counter and all its exploit-i-ness? I was only trying to call it on 3-Medium and 3-Long downs where it really shines. On 1-Medium for instance, I had outside runs set to 15% (3/20) using the 113 personnel set 10% (1/10), which means that I thought the Counter/Counter Weak would only be called 1.5% (3/200) of the time on first down. On second down, the numbers were similar. For 2-Medium, 30% run outside using 113 set 10% of the time meant that the counter should have been called 3% of the time. Not 7 times on 1st or 2nd down in a game where I ran 54 plays total.

But now that JDB is cleared up how the play calling works, and the migraine that sent me to bed at 8 last night is over, I can actually get on with some game planning.

Long story short, kids, don't be like me.

1) Don't have the 113 Counter in your playbook.
2) Learn your union of sets.

Re: The Playcalling Matrix Randomizer

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
9/24/2016 9:52 am
I have pushed an update that displays the plays grouped by play type with a better explanation of how the plays are chosen. To clear up any confusion, this display better explains how the engine has always chosen the play, nothing has changed on the back-end. But I believe it gives you a much better picture of what the probability of each play being selected is.

Re: The Playcalling Matrix Randomizer

By setherick - League Admin
9/24/2016 9:53 am
jdavidbakr wrote:
I have pushed an update that displays the plays grouped by play type with a better explanation of how the plays are chosen. To clear up any confusion, this display better explains how the engine has always chosen the play, nothing has changed on the back-end. But I believe it gives you a much better picture of what the probability of each play being selected is.


Oh, this is nice! Good work on this!

Re: The Playcalling Matrix Randomizer

By eyeballll
9/24/2016 11:12 am
setherick wrote:
Alright - let's be clear here too - I'm moving away from the 113 HB Counter and Counter Weak because both plays are exploits when it's not game planned against and it's a giant waste when it is. You either get 10-80 yards per carry or you get negative 1-5 yards per carry. Like most plays in the play book there is no concept of this is what it looks like when an average team runs it.

There is one other outside running play that I have found to be equally effective - the 221 HB Counter Weak. I have found no other outside running play that gains yards. I would to love to know if someone, anyone, has found another outside running play that works more than 1% of the time.

How far was I trying to move away from the Counter and all its exploit-i-ness? I was only trying to call it on 3-Medium and 3-Long downs where it really shines. On 1-Medium for instance, I had outside runs set to 15% (3/20) using the 113 personnel set 10% (1/10), which means that I thought the Counter/Counter Weak would only be called 1.5% (3/200) of the time on first down. On second down, the numbers were similar. For 2-Medium, 30% run outside using 113 set 10% of the time meant that the counter should have been called 3% of the time. Not 7 times on 1st or 2nd down in a game where I ran 54 plays total.

But now that JDB is cleared up how the play calling works, and the migraine that sent me to bed at 8 last night is over, I can actually get on with some game planning.

Long story short, kids, don't be like me.

1) Don't have the 113 Counter in your playbook.
2) Learn your union of sets.


I like all of this! You're a stand up guy, I know that... And for the record, I'm not saying you should take 113 counter out, but just that you should take the bad with the good a bit. I have the 113 counter in my book, but I have it there with 7 or 8 other ouutside runs that probably aren't going to work. I mean, nothing works all the time, right? It's kind of the nature of running outside: 0 yards, 0 yards, 12 YARDS! It's a risky proposition...

Re: The Playcalling Matrix Randomizer

By raymattison21
9/24/2016 2:30 pm
eyeballll wrote:
setherick wrote:
Alright - let's be clear here too - I'm moving away from the 113 HB Counter and Counter Weak because both plays are exploits when it's not game planned against and it's a giant waste when it is. You either get 10-80 yards per carry or you get negative 1-5 yards per carry. Like most plays in the play book there is no concept of this is what it looks like when an average team runs it.

There is one other outside running play that I have found to be equally effective - the 221 HB Counter Weak. I have found no other outside running play that gains yards. I would to love to know if someone, anyone, has found another outside running play that works more than 1% of the time.

How far was I trying to move away from the Counter and all its exploit-i-ness? I was only trying to call it on 3-Medium and 3-Long downs where it really shines. On 1-Medium for instance, I had outside runs set to 15% (3/20) using the 113 personnel set 10% (1/10), which means that I thought the Counter/Counter Weak would only be called 1.5% (3/200) of the time on first down. On second down, the numbers were similar. For 2-Medium, 30% run outside using 113 set 10% of the time meant that the counter should have been called 3% of the time. Not 7 times on 1st or 2nd down in a game where I ran 54 plays total.

But now that JDB is cleared up how the play calling works, and the migraine that sent me to bed at 8 last night is over, I can actually get on with some game planning.

Long story short, kids, don't be like me.

1) Don't have the 113 Counter in your playbook.
2) Learn your union of sets.


I like all of this! You're a stand up guy, I know that... And for the record, I'm not saying you should take 113 counter out, but just that you should take the bad with the good a bit. I have the 113 counter in my book, but I have it there with 7 or 8 other ouutside runs that probably aren't going to work. I mean, nothing works all the time, right? It's kind of the nature of running outside: 0 yards, 0 yards, 12 YARDS! It's a risky proposition...


The counter is a deception play. A proper read by an interior linemen or ILB combined with explosive speed will light that play up.

But say a team is pounding right with success and the defense starts to key the back and they cheat a little and forget to key the G or the defense starts calling over agressive blitzes the counter should destroy. Its a hit or miss run set up by other plays. Stupid to run against a solid D that is not agressive.

This is an in game play call. Certain zone blocking schemes use all kinds delays, draws, counters ,reverses on a regular basis. But all are set up by other plays.

Here that is possible, but not with reallife fluidity. I had assumed there was a bigger pay offs caculated in with bigger negatives to simulated but not overuse these deception plays. Still, all an assumption on how it was coded.

As far a working we should keep in mind that 2.5 yards per carry ever time will get you first downs if you run it consisently. I only want 3.3 to set up a short 3rd down pass. I think i can average between 2.5 and 3.3 with any run as long as teams have to respect my passing game. Maybe not that crappy draw/ delay out of shotgun.

I just saying. Imagine if we could run the option. All of these missed rules that players ingnore in this game that get them exposed to big gains is so much worse. Backs would be over 10 a clip like highschool.

My 99 MLBs read like highschoolers in conparison to what i watch in games. They are currently the biggest exploit. Still, most are close to leading my team in tackles but how IDK.with proper reads they would easily double those numbers.

Cause not only does he stand there waiting for Gs toget to him he stands there waiting for the fast QBs to scramble after my DEs lost contain on every pass play.